Madoka definitely spots Tony before impact. Thankfully the girl doesn't have much time to think about the moral dilemma of either saving Ignis from this and betraying Tony or helping Tony but being an accomplice to this prank.. because before she even realises what her dad is doing, there's already the mud being slung through the air.

It makes her clasp her hands in front of her mouth in surprise. But then Ignis just has that kind of smile on his face, and then he's already moving.. Uh oh.

"Dad, run..!"